2024 Summer Seasonal Forecast & Pastoral Climate Advisory

“Pasture and water availability are expected to decrease in most parts of the Pastoral areas of Ethiopia.”

The June-August 2024 seasonal forecast and pastoral climate advisory (PCA) has been released by the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) in collaboration with the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, the Oromia Agricultural Research Institute (OARI), and Addis Ababa University (AAU). This advisory is designed to assist pastoral communities in managing climate and weather risks by integrating near real-time data to anticipate resource scarcity and provide guidance on livestock movement.

The 3rd PCA advisory was co-developed by a team comprising members from EIAR, the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Ethiopian Meteorology Institute, the Yabello Pastoral and Dryland Research Center, and AAU. The PCA indicates that pasture and water availability is expected to decrease for most parts of the pastoral areas of Ethiopia due to the dry and cool reduced rainfall weather conditions and evaporation. In some pastoral areas, moderate to severe heat stress is anticipated in the coming summer season (Figure 1).

2024 Summer (June to August) Seasonal Forecast and Pastoral Climate Advisory (PCA) for Ethiopia - Image 1 — Figure 1: The likelihood of heat stress occurrence in pastoral areas of Ethiopia during the 2024 June – August season

This advisory provides timely and relevant information to help pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and other decision-makers in Ethiopia's pastoral regions to plan and prepare for the upcoming summer (JJA) season.

The PCA is supported by the CGIAR Initiative on Diversification in East and Southern Africa, which aims to address food and nutrition security risks in the region through a climate-resilient, water-secure, and socially inclusive approach.

This PCA aims to build the resilience of pastoralists in Ethiopia by improving resource management, agropastoral planning and decision-making, disaster preparedness, and climate security for pastoral communities and other key stakeholders in Ethiopia's pastoral regions. Through the dissemination of these seasonal forecasts and practical guidance, the advisory empowers pastoralists to make informed decisions that enhance their climate preparedness and adaptive capacity.

The JJA seasonal advisory includes:

Summer Seasonal forecasts Advisory for pasture and water management for the upcoming summer season
Expected heat stress impacts and anticipatory actions
Advisory for cropping planning
climate service for resource-based conflict management

The PCA bulletin is now available and will be disseminated to key stakeholders and members of the Pastoral Community of Practice (PCoP) by EIAR and the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. All stakeholders working in pastoral areas of Ethiopia are encouraged to review, use and disseminate the advisory services to make informed decision and take proactive risk-management strategies.

access the PCA bulletin