Exploring Yield Growth to 2050: Updating Exogenous Yield Growth Parameters in the IMPACT Model

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This Power BI application enables users to explore historic and projected agricultural yields up to 2050 under alternative scenarios. The tool provides insights into crops and livestock production across all world countries, including data on:

  • Yields 
  • Cultivated areas
  • Livestock numbers
  • Aggregate production

 

The tool consolidates information from FAOSTAT and from foresight results generated by IFPRI’s IMPACT economic model. Although initially designed as a tool to facilitate the update of the IMPACT model, it can also be useful during research prioritization and planning phases, as it provides a more holistic picture of country-level production trends for crops and livestock worldwide.

As such, it can be used to inform decisions about where research is needed to address yield gaps, and more generally to increase agricultural supply. 

 

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In what context is this tool useful?

This tool has proven valuable in expert consultations and strategic discussions on future agricultural trends. In 2024, the Alliance organized 10 expert consultations—both online and in person—with crop scientists to explore plausible future yield trajectories for rice, cassava, beans, and banana/plantain across 30+ countries. The Power BI tool played a key role in these sessions, providing a visual aid to support data-driven discussions.

Beyond the Alliance, the tool has also been utilized by CIMMYT, IRRI, IITA, ICARDA, ILRI, and CIP for similar purposes, demonstrating its broader relevance in research planning, foresight analysis, and agricultural decision-making.

Variations, scaling and adaptations

The tool is flexible enough to accommodate information on current and future yields, areas/heads and production for any agricultural commodity and world country. The tool can be extended to display agricultural demand information, or any other information required. Provided appropriate data is available, visualization can be performed even at subnational level.

However, individual users cannot modify the data or code—these functionalities remain under the control of the Alliance’s development team, ensuring data integrity and consistency.

Tools often used together with this tool

This Power BI tool is commonly used alongside:

  • FAOSTAT – A global database providing comprehensive agricultural statistics.
  • IMPACT Economic Model (IFPRI) – A model developed and maintained by IFPRI to analyze future agricultural trends and food security under different scenarios.

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Funders

This tool has been developed with support from the One CGIAR Initiative on Foresight & Metrics.

The data used in the Power BI tool comes from the IMPACT economic model, which is developed and maintained by IFPRI.