Blog Strategic Foresight: Let’s take a look at the future in CIAT...

It’s important to point out that GFSF was substantially funded by BMGF. This was a project that was designed, from its inception, to compliment breeding programs and investments in agricultural research related to crop technologies and different agronomic practices. The focus of GFSF at its inception was, essentially, simulation of different crop technologies to better understand the long-term impact of different potential investment decisions under conditions of climate change. This amounted to relatively straight forward questions like “What has the potential to have more impact, investment in drought or heat tolerant beans?” (and similar questions comparing different crops, etc.). The answers are complex, though, and require contemplation, interpretation, and discussion. No decision regarding research priorities and/or investment is ever black and white; this is why the foresight process can have value. Throughout CIAT, we’ve started making inroads in foresight. We’ve included foresight as a significant component in the Policy Hub out of the Asia Regional Office, we’ve started incorporating foresight analyses into the CCAFS country profiles, we’ve included foresight analysis in a WB project in Africa evaluating CSA investments on the scale of 10 – 100M dollars, the cassava program has embraced foresight through collaborative work in RTB & PIM, we’re working on plans to fortify foresight capacity within PABRA, and we’re starting to look at foresight for Sustainable Food Systems under A4NH. Even at the institutional level, we see active roles for foresight, linked to our CIAT MELIAF initiative. These are just a handful of the ways in which our foresight team has helped to mainstream foresight in CIAT. If all is going so well, what inspired this email? Two things… Life (our working lives) could get a bit more interesting with the ongoing deepening of our relationship with Bioversity. Also, foresight is starting to make its way into both the CGIAR narrative as well as other groups on a much more consistent and systematic basis. I share with you three very current examples with short commentary on each:

• First, the ISPC is convening a special meeting on foresight with the following goal: “to inform the strategy of the CGIAR, and to provide context and emerging insights as a basis for system level prioritization of research.” In short, the better we are at the center in foresight, the more empowered we will be in the dialog regarding future priorities (for both CIAT and whatever becomes the next incarnation of the CRPs). Looking at trends within the CG and that true reform is still ongoing, it’s we’d want to be as empowered as possible in these complex conversations.
• Second, take a look at https://www.foresight4food.net/. As you all know, Sustainable Food Systems is a priority for CIAT. Many still eschew the idea in general terms, but rest assured that, at the very least, we need to know how what we do fits into the broader SFS landscape. Personally, I see SFS initiatives within CIAT as a crucial bridge to this broader global trend. Focused foresight helps us improve our impact in SFS related research areas.
• Finally, please take a look at this blog entry from GFAR: https://bit.ly/2p47NiP. Around the world, communities are empowering themselves using foresight approaches. If we also embrace foresight, our ability to have community level dialog will be greatly enhanced. I see this as a particularly important opportunity in programs like PABRA, but also in many other areas.

Are there any take home lessons here? I’m many of you will have additional perspective, but I would like to share my three ideas:

• Embrace (begrudgingly or otherwise) foresight. It’s here to stay. Donors are asking for it. The CG is asking for it. CRPs are doing it.
• Leverage foresight. Like a fiery hot chili pepper, a little can go a long way. Sure, sometimes you want foresight to be front and center. Most of the time, however, foresight is a “flavor” that helps whatever it complements stand out and be just a bit more interesting and relevant.
• Work together. Foresight only works when there are a range of experts in the room. From day one, our priorities have been to collaborate across silos. This requires everyone to get a bit out of their comfort zone and have open dialog. That’s OK, it’s good for you!

In any event, I hope this is some food for thought. We have some real opportunities in front of us, and Donors are aware of and invested in foresight. If you have any question please feel free to reach out. Let’s not be left at the station!