Climate risk assessment and agricultural value chain prioritisation for Malawi and Zambia

Climate change is projected to have serious impacts on the agriculture of southern Africa, affecting
food availability, creating local production shortfalls and resulting in rising commodity prices. This
report highlights the risks to agriculture and food systems that may occur in two counties of the region,
Malawi and Zambia. The analysis uses the conceptual framework of climate-related risk from the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to examine the impacts that
climate change is likely to have on agriculture and food security. Country-specific trends in
temperature and rainfall and projected impacts are summarised from the literature. The vulnerability of
the agricultural sector in each country is discussed in relation to its sensitivity to change and coping and
adaptive capacity, and the risks of climate change on agriculture and small-scale farmers in the two
focus countries assessed. A prioritisation process is then carried out to rank different commodities in
each country, with respect to four dimensions: the importance of the commodity to the economy of the
country, the national yield gap compared with the regional average, the importance of the commodity
in people’s diet, and the projected impact of climate change on yield. The results of the analysis
highlight three commodities that could be prioritized for agricultural development interventions: maize,
potatoes and beans in Malawi, and maize, pulses and sorghum in Zambia.