Climate change and cocoa cultivation

Climate change has been projected to impact cocoa production unless cultivation practices are adapted. Guiding effective adaptation is a challenging task because of the high model uncertainty for precipitation which is a vital consideration for cocoa producers. We focus on identifying preconditions for forward-looking, proactive adaptation, describing global climatic changes at current cocoa production locations and demonstrating that impacts are spatially differentiated with the example of Ivory Coast. Temperatures were found to rise beyond historically experienced levels with high certainty. In Ivory Coast, at the frontier along the Savanna, dry season conditions may become too severe for cocoa growing. In order to effectively guide adaptation strategies, cocoa research will need to close important knowledge gaps regarding the interaction of cocoa genotypes, high growing season temperatures and reductions in bean quality, the effect of combined heat and drought events for plant survival, and likely changes of pest and disease threats.