Understanding forest transitions and lock-ins in Latin American agro-forest frontiers. Aligning theory to practice for accelerating restoration

The agro-forest frontier is the dynamic border between agricultural and forested lands. Drawing on results from an interdisciplinary research programme, we synthesise and compare social-ecological dynamics in three Latin American agro-forest frontiers: Marqués de Comillas and La Sepultura in Mexico, and Zona da Mata in Brazil. Each includes extensive livestock grazing, rain-fed agriculture, secondary vegetation, and state-protected areas. Forest transition theory (FTT) proposes that after settlement, forest cover decreases until a turning point (the forest transition) when forest cover may start to increase. We asked what drives forest cover change in each site and how well the FTT reflects empirical evidence. We quantified past forest dynamics, positioned the frontiers along the ‘forest transition curve’, qualitatively assessed their drivers of change, and evaluated the fit between theoretical models and empirical evidence.
The frontiers represented different socio-ecological dynamics, resulting in contrasting forest cover trends that extend beyond patterns described by the FTT. The two Mexican frontiers appeared to be locked into pathways away from forest transitions; one driven by state-led conservation, and characterised by low-productive agriculture and forest degradation; the other driven by globalisation and neoliberal developments, and characterised by extensive grazing and deforestation. A forest transition was observed in the Brazilian frontier, enabled by alignment of social movements and state policy.
To advance understanding of forest transitions, scholars should broaden the analytical use of the FTT to include lock-ins that hinder transitions, while considering power-dynamics and the agency of social movements. Advanced understanding is urgent to promote forest transitions as part of the strategy to achieve global restoration targets.