Technology horizons: Learning from early-stage digital probes 2025

This report synthesizes learning from the first year of implementation of the PROBES portfolio under the CGIAR Digital Transformation Accelerator (DTA), within the Digital Futures Area of Work (AoW3). Probes are designed as early-stage, safe-to-fail digital experiments that explore frontier technologies before they enter formal innovation, piloting, or scaling pathways. Rather than delivering deployable solutions, probes generate evidence to support institutional learning and decision-making under uncertainty.
Drawing on self-reported data from 25 probes submitted by CGIAR centers, the report examines how different digital technologies performed across diverse real-world contexts in the Global South. Findings highlight that probes generate value both when technologies meet expectations and when they reveal important limitations, enabling CGIAR and its partners to make informed decisions to continue, redesign, or discontinue specific digital approaches. Several probes demonstrated technical feasibility within well-defined scopes, while others clarified readiness gaps related to data quality, field conditions, usability, and sensor reliability.
Overall, the report shows that early-stage digital probes play a critical role in strengthening CGIAR’s capacity to assess digital opportunities and risks, avoid premature investment, and guide future research and innovation pathways. As a year-zero activity, the PROBES portfolio contributes not through innovation outcomes, but through evidence-based learning and institutional decision-making that support responsible digital futures for food, land, and water systems.