Pastoral climate advisory for Ethiopia: Enhancing the resilience of mixed crop-livestock production, October to December (OND), 2026

The Ethiopian seasonal climate drivers, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal October–November–December (OND) 2026 rainfall across most pastoral and agro-pastoral lowlands of Ethiopia, fostering improved soil moisture, rangeland vegetation recovery, and livestock water availability;

The late-season OND rainfall is expected to benefit standing long-cycle and late-planted crops in northern and northeastern regions; notably Afar, Tigray, and Amhara that were adversely affected by poor Kiremt rainfall distribution, while simultaneously posing risks of harvest delays, expected unseasonal rain and hence post-harvest losses requiring timely intervention;

Conversely, livestock heat stress outlooks indicate low to near-zero stress across West Hararghe, Borana, Guji, southern Tigray, and eastern Somali, alongside mild heat stress in northern Somali and western/southern Afar; and initial poor range water satisfaction across Afar and Siti zones in October is forecasted to transition toward good to very good conditions across southern and eastern pastoral zones in November;

Now, therefore, all relevant stakeholders, regional authorities, and agricultural actors are advised to review and execute the operational advisories and mitigation protocols set forth in this bulletin.