Pastoral climate advisory for Ethiopia: Enhancing adaptation of mixed crop-livestock production systems in lowlands of Ethiopia June-September Season (JJAS) 2026

This Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Climate Advisory provides the June–September 2026 (JJAS) seasonal outlook for Ethiopia’s pastoral and agro-pastoral lowlands, including crop-producing agricultural farmers, by integrating climate forecasts with analyses of rangeland conditions, water resources, livestock, crop performance, and climate security. Forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below-average rainfall across the main kiremt rainfall regions particularly in central, northeastern, and western Ethiopia. Conversely, localized unseasonal rainfall is expected in southeastern areas. These conditions are likely to affect pasture availability, water resources, and overall agricultural production
Rising temperatures are also expected to increase livestock heat stress, while declining pasture and water resources may intensify livestock mobility and competition, elevating the risk of localized conflicts and resource pressure.
The advisory recommends adopting drought-tolerant and early maturing crops, improving rangeland and water management, strengthening livestock health services, and implementing climate-informed, conflict-sensitive resource planning to enhance resilience and sustain livelihoods.