The nature and impact of climate change in the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) basins

In this article the authors assess the potential impacts of projected climate change on water, livelihoods and food security in the Basin Focal Project basins. The authors consider expected change within the context of recently observed climate variability in the basins to better understand the potential impact of expected change and the options available for adaptation. They use multi-global circulation model climate projections for the AR4 SRES A2a scenario, downscaled and extracted for each basin. They nd significant differences in the impacts (both positive and negative impacts) of climate change, between and within basins, but also nd large-scale uncertainty between climate models in the impact that is projected