Land suitability analysis and mapping for identifying potential areas for expanding soybean (Glycine max L.) production in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s agriculture sector is vital for national economic growth and food system transformation, but achieving its potential requires smart, evidence-based land-use planning to determine “what to grow where.” Soybeans have become increasingly important due to growing demand from agro-processing industries, its profitability for farmers, and its role in national development strategies. However, despite growth in soybean area and production since 2010, productivity remains below global averages because of limited agronomic practices, poor access to improved varieties, and insufficient knowledge of suitable expansion zones. To address this gap, the assessment aimed to map Ethiopia’s potential for expanding rain-fed soybean production using GIS based land suitability analysis, supporting strategic decisions on investment, variety targeting, testing, scaling, and value chain development. The study applied an FAO guided multi-criteria evaluation approach, using climate, soil, topography, and land-use data harmonised at 200 m resolution and weighted through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Results show strong spatial variation in suitability. Under rain-fed conditions, 4.4% (4.97 million ha) of Ethiopia is highly suitable and 14.2% (16.16 million ha) is moderately suitable, together representing about 21.1 million ha (18–22% of national land area) with strong potential for sustainable soybean expansion. Suitability is concentrated mainly in western and south-western Ethiopia, while eastern and arid lowland areas are largely unsuitable. In terms of percentage, Benishangul-Gumuz is identified as the strongest hotspot, followed by Gambela and South-West Ethiopia, while Oromia and Amhara offer major expansion opportunities due to large areas of moderately suitable land. Regions such as Afar, Somali, and major cities are predominantly unsuitable. The suitability maps provide important evidence for prioritizing soybean development, guiding varietal testing and scaling, strengthening input systems and value chains, and supporting agro-processing and export opportunities. Since much of the suitable area is moderately suitable, productivity improvements will depend on targeted management interventions such as improved soil fertility, drainage, climate-resilient varieties, extension services, and selective irrigation or soil amendments in marginal areas.