Land suitability analysis and mapping for identifying areas of maize (Zea mays) production expansion potential in Ethiopia

Maize is a leading cereal and staple crop, vital to national food security and livelihoods in Ethiopia. Ethiopia is now the second-largest maize producer in Sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria. Production has expanded from 2.83 million tons in 2003 to about 10 million tons in 2023, engaging more than nine million smallholder farmers and providing a key ingredient for traditional foods such as injera and kitta. This study, funded by the Growing Together Program that supports small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to transform maize value chains in Ethiopia. The analysis provides evidence-based insights to help SMEs and farmers locate optimal growing areas, plan reliable input supply, reduce climate-related risks, and position processing facilities efficiently. By linking production potential with agro-industrial development, the study supports resource-efficient maize cultivation, increases productivity and profitability, and contributes to Ethiopia’s food security, economic growth, and market competitiveness. This study assessed land suitability for maize using a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Ethiopia’s diverse topography ranges from hot arid lowlands to alpine zones, with rainfall varying from under 300 mm in some lowlands to over 2,000 mm in the southwest highlands. Nine key factors were evaluated: rainfall, temperature, soil depth, texture, pH, organic matter, drainage, elevation, and slope. Data were sourced from global climate, soil, and topographic databases and standardized to 1km resolution. Pairwise comparison of factors produced a strong consistency ratio of 1.2%, confirming reliability. Suitability was classified into highly suitable (S1), moderately to marginally suitable (S2), and not suitable (N) categories. About 41 million hectares of Ethiopian land are suitable for maize cultivation, including 19 million hectares classified as highly suitable and 22 million hectares that are moderately to marginally suitable. Within this total, roughly 5.8 million hectares (5.39 % of the national area) are highly suitable highland areas, while approximately 131,500 km² (12.27 % of the national area) are highly suitable lowland areas. To maximize productivity and strengthen national food security, investments and extension services should be targeted in the most suitable regions—particularly Benishangul-Gumuz, South-West Ethiopia, SNNP, and Oromia—while also promoting the use of suitability data by SMEs to guide input supply chains, processing plant locations, and the adoption of precision irrigation in areas with unreliable rainfall. Training and clear communication are essential so that farmers and agribusinesses can interpret suitability maps and make informed decisions on appropriate maize varieties or alternative crops. At the same time, expanding irrigation and improved seed technologies can help transform marginal not suitable lands, especially in dry regions like Afar and Somali, into more suitable areas. This evidence-based approach not only directs SMEs toward the most promising opportunities but also aligns with national food-security goals, safeguarding natural resources and fostering sustainable economic growth.