Insights for the next decade of climate action research for agriculture

The next decade will determine whether food systems adapt to accelerating climate risk or enter a phase of structural instability. This presentation synthesizes a research program on climate impacts and adaptation in agriculture, drawing on advances in crop–climate modelling, on-farm experimentation, climate services, and adaptation tracking. While evidence shows that climate-smart and adaptive practices can stabilize yields and support recovery under stress, five core insights emerge. First, adaptation is not primarily a technology problem but a problem of decisions under uncertainty, shaped by timing, constraints, and risk perception. Second, decisions operate across timescales, yet scientific and advisory systems remain fragmented. Third, the critical bottleneck lies in translation: the conversion of climate and agronomic information into context-specific, usable guidance. Fourth, current approaches fail to measure adaptation in ways that capture risk reduction and system resilience. Finally, scaling is constrained not by the absence of innovations, but by their limited embedding in institutions, markets, and delivery systems.

Building on these insights, the presentation proposes a forward-looking research agenda structured around three components. First, risk intelligence systems that quantify and track dynamic climate risk and its reduction in ways that inform decisions across timescales. Second, translation and adaptive delivery systems that integrate human, institutional, and AI-enabled processes to convert information into actionable knowledge. Third, adaptation pathways embedded in real systems, focusing on portfolios of practices, technologies, and institutional arrangements that deliver resilient outcomes and align with investment and policy frameworks. Together, these components define a shift from generating knowledge to building systems that learn and adapt under risk. Anchored in ongoing large-scale initiatives, including the Alliance Bioversity–CIAT Climate Action Strategic Bets, this agenda aims to deliver food security, livelihoods, and economic recovery at scale.