Improved fragility and risk indicators for anticipatory action in food, land, and water systems

For the 1.5 billion people living in fragile and conflict-affected situations, livelihood challenges are compounded by climate change, unsustainable resource consumption, poor governance, and weak social cohesion. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and preparedness are critical components of a comprehensive approach to managing and mitigating the impact of disasters. While anticipatory action (AA) interventions for monitoring socio-ecological risks are gaining prominence, the approaches and risk indicators differ considerably within and between climate, development, and humanitarian communities. There is also a fundamental variance in approaches and risk indicators relating to triggers and trigger components. This diversity underscores the need for a cohesive framework which addresses these disparities. Here we define a novel typology of fragility and risk indicators from a food, land and water system perspective, which supports the evolving nature of anticipatory action.