Enteric methane emissions from smallholder dairy systems in Ethiopia: A case study of tropical & subtropical regions

Dairy production is vital for livelihoods in Ethiopia but contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, with enteric methane (CH₄) representing the largest source. This study evaluated the mitigation potential of improved forages promoted through Venture37’s NPA program across smallholder dairy systems in tropical and subtropical regions of Ethiopia. Household survey data from six regions were analyzed using the IPCC Tier 2 approach implemented through the iCLEANED GHG module to estimate methane emissions for samples collected in 2024 and 2025. Results showed that higher productivity was associated with lower methane emission intensity. Farms with greater proportions of lactating cows, improved forage use, higher feed digestibility, and increased use of exotic breeds exhibited lower CH₄ emissions per unit of milk produced. Conversely, low-performing farms with more non-productive animals showed higher emission intensities. Closing the efficiency gap between least- and best-performing farms could reduce emissions by approximately 300–322 t CO₂-eq annually, highlighting substantial mitigation opportunities through productivity improvements. The findings suggest that mitigation strategies should be targeted rather than uniform, as differences in management practices, investment levels, and farm characteristics influence emission outcomes. Tailored improvements in feed quality, herd productivity, and management efficiency offer practical pathways for low-methane dairy development in Ethiopia.