Climate risk scan and resilience assessment for soybean (Glycine max, L.) production: the case of Jawi and Debub Achefer Districts, Ethiopia

Soybean (Glycine max, L) production in the Amhara region, specifically in Jawi and Debub Achefer Districts, Ethiopia, is subject to significant climate-related risks, with drought and erratic rainfall identified as the dominant hazards affecting productivity, supply reliability, and long-term value chain resilience. Based on desk research combining hazard exposure with crop sensitivity and baseline farm vulnerability, drought is classified as a very high risk, while erratic rainfall represents a high risk. Heatwaves are currently assessed as a low risk, although future temperature increases may intensify their interaction with moisture stress. The assessment shows that farm-level climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices are technically sound, widely perceived as feasible, and moderately adopted, though often only partially implemented. Soil-related practices—such as soil cover management and integrated soil structure and nutrient management—emerge as the most robust interventions, demonstrating consistent effectiveness across all major climate hazards. Crop diversification, resilient crop varieties, sustainable water management, and irrigation are also recognised as effective, particularly for managing drought and rainfall variability, yet adoption remains constrained by financial, infrastructural, and institutional barriers. Agroforestry practices offer strong potential for heat stress mitigation, while market-oriented practices contribute primarily to livelihood resilience rather than direct risk reduction. In contrast, farmer support services lag significantly behind farm-level practices, despite
strong perceived relevance and feasibility. Training on climate adaptation and climate information services are viewed as highly effective but remains insufficiently accessible. Financial services including value chain finance, insurance schemes, and climate risk sharing mechanisms show particularly low levels of adoption, limiting farmers’ ability to invest in adaptation and absorb climate shocks. This gap reflects systemic delivery and institutional constraints rather than a lack of farmer demand. At the company level, climate risk management measures are only partially implemented. While diversification of crops and sourcing areas and investments in storage provide some buffering against climate variability, major gaps persist in climate risk monitoring, staff capacity, and governance frameworks. Climate risks are not yet systematically integrated into planning and decision-making, undermining long-term resilience. Overall, the assessment finds that stakeholder interest and perceived feasibility consistently exceed actual implementation across all intervention levels. This indicates that the primary barriers to climate adaptation are systemic and institutional, rather than technical. Strengthening enabling systems particularly water-focused adaptation, farmer services, financial instruments, capacity building, and climate-informed governance is essential to translating existing interest into sustained action. Addressing these constraints will be critical to achieving scalable, long-term climate resilience for soybean production and the broader value chain in Ethiopia.