Advancing spatiotemporal analysis of climate variability: Current trends, future projections, causes, and impacts on maize production in Southern Ethiopia

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of climate characteristics, variability, and their impacts on maize production in Southern Ethiopia, integrating historical observations with future climate projections. Using advanced statistical analyses, including Mann-Kendall trend tests and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions (REOF), we identify significant warming trends in both minimum and maximum temperatures across all seasons, alongside spatially heterogeneous rainfall variability strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions such as ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Our analysis reveals that maize yields in key agricultural zones, Sidama, South Omo, and Wolayita are highly sensitive to seasonal rainfall and temperature fluctuations, particularly during critical phenological stages. Future climate projections under SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios indicate decreasing rainfall during the main maize growing season (MAM) coupled with rising temperatures, exacerbating water stress and threatening crop productivity. Conversely, increased rainfall during the short rains (SON) may offer opportunities but also pose risks from waterlogging and pest outbreaks. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate-smart agricultural strategies, including drought-resistant varieties, adjusted planting calendars, and enhanced water management, to safeguard food security and rural livelihoods amid evolving climate risks in Southern Ethiopia.