El fenómeno de El Niño en Guatemala

This study delves into the effects of the El Niño phenomenon in Guatemala, focusing on its consequences for the country's overall agroclimatic conditions. El Niño, characterized by the warming of waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggers disruptions in global climatic patterns.

In Guatemala, during the agricultural season from May to October, El Niño years exhibit a widespread reduction of up to 20% in precipitation and an average increase of 1°C in temperature. Additionally, potential evapotranspiration experiences a 7% increase compared to the historical average. The frequency of drought events, assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), indicates that over 60% of El Niño events between 1980 and 2021 involved moderate droughts during the agricultural season, especially in the Dry Corridor and the eastern, central, and southern coastal regions.

NDVI analysis links droughts to crop growth, revealing a spatial correlation between areas affected by moderate droughts and low NDVI values. The performance of maize and bean crops under El Niño was examined, uncovering a trend of decreased maize yields and increased bean yields. This pattern suggests a more significant impact of El Niño-induced drought conditions on maize, while beans may benefit from higher temperatures during these years.

This analysis provides insights into the agroclimatic impacts of El Niño in Guatemala, offering valuable knowledge for risk management and agricultural planning in the country.