Cascades of tipping in impacts

This chapter advances the state-of-the-art understanding of tipping cascades across scales and systems between Earth system and social tipping points. We consider a tipping cascade to occur when extremes or passing of a tipping point in one system triggers or increases the likelihood of reaching a tipping point in another. Here, this means that crossing an Earth system tipping point or experiencing an extreme volatility in the natural system can lead to cascading impacts that trigger social tipping points, and vice versa.

Our analysis of the literature shows that most is known about the tipping cascades in the large-scale Earth System, while hardly any research analyses tipping cascades within socio-economic systems. We further illustrate the complexity of identifying tipping cascades with five case studies. These examples show the challenges in establishing the state of systems involved, identifying and modelling dynamics over time and space, as well as capturing the context dependency of interactions, especially in the social system.

Further research steps include development of conceptual understanding of causal chains and feedbacks, as well as systematic accumulation of the empirical evidence base over temporal and across spatial scales. Research on governance of tipping cascades is in its infancy, with little insight into how the risks of tipping cascades can be identified and managed.